Bengals (4-7) at Steelers (8-3)
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m., Heinz Field (65,050, grass) Line: Steelers by 7

Forecast: Showers, 42 degrees

Story line
The Bengals hope to build on the momentum they gained from last week's 35-6 rout of Tennessee. Just as they did with the Titans, the Bengals might be catching Pittsburgh at the right time. The Steelers are coming off a Monday night game and will be without injured WR Santonio Holmes and probably S Troy Polamalu.

What's at stake?
The Bengals must win to even retain a mathematical chance at the playoffs, though they're probably doomed as it is. Of more immediate urgency is the need to regain some of their lost confidence.

Series
The Steelers lead 45-30. Cincinnati has won the past two meetings in Heinz Field. Cincinnati won 38-31 on its way to the AFC North title in 2005 and 28-20 last year. Pittsburgh won the first game this year, 24-13 on Oct. 28 in Paul Brown Stadium.

On the hot seat
Bengals C Eric Ghiaciuc He has been pushed around a little too much and must be stout against NT Casey Hampton. If Ghiaciuc can't control Hampton and needs help from guards Bobbie Williams and Andrew Whitworth, the Bengals could have trouble running up the middle.

Key matchup
Bengals DE Justin Smith vs. Steelers LT Max Starks.  With Marvel Smith likely out because of a back injury, Starks, normally a right tackle, will fill in. Smith hasn't lived up to his status as the Bengals' franchise player. He needs to put pressure on Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

Streaks/slumps
In the first eight games, the Bengals defense allowed opponents to convert 46 of 101 third-down chances (45.5 percent). In the past three games, Bengals opponents have gone 8 of 31 (25.8 percent). … Bengals WR Chad Johnson leads the NFL in receptions for first downs with 60. … Despite playing in the slop that Heinz Field became Monday against Miami, Roethlisberger completed 18 of 21 passes for a career-high 85.7 percentage. … Steelers RB Willie Parker has topped 1,000 yards, giving him three straight seasons over that milestone. … Pittsburgh LB James Harrison has 8 1/2 sacks and six forced fumbles.

The Bengals win if …
They are able to pick up Pittsburgh's blitzes and give QB Carson Palmer enough time to throw. With WR Chris Henry back and a Steelers secondary likely to be without Polamalu, Cincinnati should be able to move the ball. Defensively, the Bengals can't allow holes for Parker or Roethlisberger to improvise big plays.

The Bengals lose if …
They fall behind early. Pittsburgh is nearly unbeatable when it gets a sizable early advantage. The jury is still out on whether the Bengals' improvement on defense can be sustained, and the Steelers have the players to exploit it. If the old bugaboos reappear -- missed tackles and blown assignments -- the Bengals are doomed.

Prediction
BENGALS 20, STEELERS 17
OK, this is purely a hunch. Clearly, the Steelers should be favored, but the Bengals played with a looseness that had been missing all season in their shellacking of Tennessee. For once, the Bengals' opponent is harder hit by injuries than they are, and that's enough to tip the scales ever so slightly.

Columbus Disptach

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