What to do about the Bengals?

As far as NFL betting sleeper picks for this season in the AFC, I was so tempted to take Cincinnati, who should take some confidence from a three-game winning streak to end 2008. However, there are too many if's and possible distractions.

The Bengals were a bloody mess offensively last year, with injuries to Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco (who still managed to be a distraction), and the suspension of Chris Henry. This resulted in the Bengals having the worst offense in the league.

 But Palmer is healthy. Ochocinco looks to be ready, and we haven't heard any trade demands (yet). Henry was brilliant in the first preseason game, and we all know he has the talent, but can't stay out of trouble long enough to get into a rhythm. Laveranues Coles joins the team from the New York Jets to counteract the loss of T.J. Houshmandzedah, who left for Seattle. First-round pick Andre Smith still hasn't signed with the team, and he had a rough combine, coming in out of shape. Again, loads of talent, but the mental part of his game leaves a lot to be desired. Looks like he's in the right place.

The defense was awful, coming in 27th , and it's a wonder that the Bengals aren't better on defense given that head coach Marvin Lewis was the mastermind of the Baltimore defense that set records in 2000 en route to the Super Bowl. The linebackers are solid, and I'm waiting to see if Rey Maualuga can be the disruptive force that he was at USC. Again, like Smith, he had some off-field problems in college, but he has the talent to dominate, even if he does overpursue often. The secondary is terrible, and they were 30th in sacks. You have to either rush the quarterback or be good in coverage, and the Bengals are neither.

The Bengals have all the talent in the world, especially on offense, and they should be able to put up points. But in a division that has Pittsburgh and Baltimore, who were the two best defenses in the league last year, you're not going to get very fair. The Bengals have a manageable schedule (11th easiest in the NFL), but those division games are going to be a problem. Also, until they prove that they can be a normal team with no distractions, they won't go anyway. Don't put too much faith in the Bengals' sportsbook odds.